July Sees No Change To The UK’s Consumer Confidence
Written by GfK NOP
GfK’s UK Consumer Confidence Index has stayed the same again this month at -29.
Nick Moon, Managing Director of Social Research at GfK, comments:
“According to the latest GDP figures, the economy has suffered a further 0.7 per cent decline between April and June. This is the third quarter in a row the economy has contracted, meaning the UK is now stuck in the worse double-dip recession since modern records began. It is not surprising therefore that the Index has remained the same this month, as consumer confidence remains as stagnant as the economy.
“Things are looking very bleak for the government. This is the third month in a row the Index has not changed and consumer confidence has been stuck between -29 or -31 for the last seven months. This is a clear indication that all attempts by the Government to improve the situation in the UK aren’t making any impressions on the public mood.”
UK Consumer Confidence Measures – July 2012
The overall index score has stayed the same this month at -29. Three of the five measures saw increases this month, 1 measure decreased and one measure stayed the same. The annual moving average stays the same at -30.
Personal Financial Situation
The index measuring changes in personal finances during the last twelve months has stayed the same this month at -23; this is two points lower than July 2011.
The forecast for personal finances over the next twelve months has increased one point to -8; this is four points higher than this time last year.
General Economic Situation
The measure for the general economic situation of the country during the last twelve months has decreased one point to -59; this is two points lower than July 2012.
An expectation for the general economic situation over the next twelve months has increased one point to -30, three points lower than July ‘11.
Climate for Major Purchases
The major purchases measure has increased by two points this month to
-26; which is five points lower than this time last year.
The ‘now is a good time to save’ Index, has decreased four points to -15, which is eight points lower than July ’11.
About the survey
• The UK Consumer Confidence Barometer is conducted by GfK on behalf of the EU, with similar surveys being conducted in each European country. In producing its own reports on the whole of Europe, the EU applies a seasonal adjustment to the data, to smooth out any changes that are functions at least in part of the time of year.
• Historically, the UK data have not been seasonally adjusted in this way, and to maintain comparability, GfK continues not to apply this adjustment. This can lead to situations where the EU figures show different movements in a particular month from those produced by GfK. Individual months may be affected, but the long term trend is not.
• The UK Consumer Confidence Survey from GfK was conducted amongst a sample of 2,002 individuals aged 16+ on behalf of the European Commission.
• Quotas are imposed on age, sex, region and social class to ensure the final sample is representative of the UK population.
• Interviewing was carried out during 6th – 15th July 2012.
• The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%
• Results for the Consumer Confidence Barometer are normally available on the last working day of each month at 00.01am; the release date for August 2012 is Friday 31st August 2012.
• Any published material requires a reference to both GfK and the European Commission e.g. ‘Research carried out by GfK on behalf of the European Commission’.
• This study has been running since 1974. Back data is available from 1996.
The table below provides an overview of the questions asked to obtain the individual index measures:
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31 July 2012